Minorities Having More Babies: Who Will Be the Majority?

A recent report of the Census Bureau notes that minorities are on a trajectory to become the majority. According to numbers, at the year ending July 1, 2009, minority groups (blacks, Hispanics, Native Americans, etc.) accounted for 48.5% of all live births whereas non-minority groups accounted for 51.4% of all live births, down from 55% in previous years.
What does this mean for the US? If trends continue it could mean that a dramatic shift may occur in how “minority” is defined, at least in racial terms. With 17.6% of those births being to black families and 25.8% being to Hispanic families, could it be that Hispanics will take over the minority groups in the US? And if so, how will this affect policy,if at all?
In 2004 it was estimated that there were some 41.3 million Latinos in the United States. Of that population, 23% self-identified as Protestant or “other” non-Catholic denominations (this included Jehovah's Witness and Mormon); but still the majority of Latinos identified themselves (70%) as Catholic.
This, along with the majority of blacks identifying as Christian, could represent the two groups who maintain a Christian majority in America for the future. No longer will we be a nation of “WASPs” (white anglo-saxon, protestant, Americans). Instead we could easily become a nation of HALPACAs (Hispanic And Latino Protestant And Catholic Americans).
In a 1999 article in Civil Rights Journal, Farai Chideya almost prophetically stated that by the year 2050, whites would become the minority. If current trends continue, this could easily come to fruition.
Chideya cites older data to make the point. In 1950, 85% of America was white and the majority, Christian, predominantly Protestant. By 1999, that number had dropped to 73% and today, it's down to 51.4%. Having dropped nearly 4% in less than five years, this would seem to indicate that the reversal of minority status could come easily within the 2050 prediction.
So what then? If or when whites become the minority, will laws be changed to embrace whites AS a minority? Or is defining “minority” a matter of population numbers only?
It could be argued that “minority” is defined by income and employment or position rather than by the over-all numbers. For example, while people of color may make up the majority in a broad population, some would argue that their absence of representation in particular fields or financial levels still places these groups in the category of “minority.”
A prime example of why we may need to do away with the current definitions of minority status could best be seen in the Arizona situation. The people of Arizona voted to place in law legislation which mirrors that of the national law regarding immigration, specifically, illegal immigration.
Opponents are trying to paint this as “racist.”
But is it?
In 2008, the population breakdown by race showed that 86.5% of Arizonans were classified as “white”. Of these, 58.4% were non-Hispanic and 30.1% were Hispanic. There's every reason to believe that this divide has shrunken rather than grown. But using the 2008 data, and given that 73% of Arizonans supported the Immigration reform law, this would mean that at least some of the Hispanic population favored the law.
There is a very real concern that the influx of illegals from Mexico, along with rising birth rate, means that there will be a shift in power in the US, in particular, political power. Contrary to what Democrats may think, however, this could shift politics more towards the right than the left. Hispanic populations tend to be more family oriented; less prone to encourage matriarchy; and more likely to view things like abortion and homosexuality as being wrong and a detriment to their social group.
What this could mean is that whichever group appeals more to the heart of the Hispanic population – the family – is likely the party which will garner the support of that community. It's not just about immigration, for many Hispanics, it's the whole package.
In other words, appealing to the Hispanic community using illegal immigration as center stage on the platform could ultimately backfire for Democrats who are, at the present time, playing the role of appeaser.
Ultimately our society will have to face the change, even if for now a narrow margin keeps whites in the “majority.” Just how we will address it, and if whites will have to have a fight for their own “civil rights” in the future is yet to be seen. But wouldn't that be an oddity if the world flip flopped?
- fyreflye's blog
- Login or register to post comments


